Moody’s: Home prices to fall
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Fortune published a report created by Moody’s Analytics division that suggests housing prices could fall by up to 10% in some U.S. cities. According to Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, the dip will not represent a nationwide correction in home prices.
Zandi predicts that home prices will drop to zero over the next twelve months.\u00a0He predicts that some of the most expensive housing markets will see a decline.
Zandi attributes the market’s cooling to rapidly rising mortgage rates in a market already overvalued.\u00a0Fortune reported that Zandi doesn’t believe the current market prices are indicative of a housing bubble because speculation is not accompanied by overvaluation.\u00a0Fortune reports that he does see some “speculation creeping into” markets such as Phoenix and Charlotte, where they are overvalued by 46%, and 33% respectively.
If a market for housing is considered overvalued, this means that home prices are higher than average and local incomes.\u00a0Moody’s research found that 96% of 392 metro area markets were “overvalued,” with 149 being at least 25%.
Fortune also published an interactive chart that shows the overvalued markets.\u00a0The values range from -6% to -6%. This means that home prices are less than expected when you factor in local incomes. Boise, Idaho is the most overvalued place in the country at 73%.
These are some of the most expensive regions and cities where home prices can be expected to fall by 5% to 10% in the next 12 month…
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Boise, ID \u2014 73%.
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Sherman-Denizon, TX \u2014 60%.
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Muskegon, MI \u2014 59%.
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Morristown, TN \u2014 57%.
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Homosassa Springs, FL \u2014 57%.
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Lake Havasu City \u2014 Kingman, AZ \u2014 56%.
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Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI \u2014 55%.
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Dalton, GA \u2014 55%.
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Flagstaff, AZ \u2014 51%.
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Pocatello, ID \u2014 49%.
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Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA \u2014 48%.
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Albany-Lebanon, OR \u2014 48%.
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Idaho Falls, ID \u2014 48%.
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Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN \u2014 48%.
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Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL \u2014 48%.
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Clarksville, TN / KY \u2014 48%.
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Bellingham, WA \u2014 47%.
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Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC / NC\u2013 47%.
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Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ \u2014 46%.
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Cleveland, TN \u2014 46%.
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Asheville, NC \u2014 46%.
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Flint, MI \u2014 46%.